Apple’s foldable iPhone could ship more than 10 million units in its first year on the market, according to a new forecast from research firm IDC. The optimistic projection arrives as Apple reportedly prepares to unveil the device, widely expected to be called the iPhone Ultra, on September 9.
IDC’s senior research director, Nabila Popal, said Apple is expected to “deliver more than 10 million shipments in its first year,” despite the device’s premium price positioning. The estimate spans the foldable iPhone’s full first year of availability rather than a single calendar year.
Why analysts are bullish on the iPhone Ultra
Skepticism has surrounded foldable phones for years, but sentiment has shifted heading into 2026. Counterpoint Research recently forecast that book-type devices will make up 76% of global foldable smartphone shipments this year, a sharp rise from 52% in 2025. The firm credits Apple’s arrival with helping fuel overall market growth of 21% year over year.
Counterpoint also projects that Apple could capture 25% of foldable shipments in 2026 alone. That report covers only the 2026 calendar year, a narrower window than IDC’s first-year estimate, but both point in the same direction for the foldable iPhone’s debut.
How the competition stacks up
For context, Samsung’s new Galaxy Z Fold 8 uses a passport-like aspect ratio similar to the design Apple is reportedly planning. It starts at EUR 1,627 with 256GB of storage and 12GB of RAM. Samsung led the foldable market with a 40% share in 2025, but its position is expected to slip to 32% in 2026.
The competitive landscape signals a rapid reshuffling once Apple enters the category. A strong Apple debut would reshape a segment Samsung has dominated for years.
What IDC expects for the broader market
IDC believes Apple’s entry will help “avert a double-digit percentage decline for foldables this year.” The firm forecasts that the foldable category will grow 12.6% in 2026 and accelerate to an 18% increase the following year.
Looking further out, IDC predicts Apple “will eventually account for 40% of all foldable shipments in 2027,” a milestone that would place the company at the front of a market it is only now joining. Apple is reportedly set to announce the device on September 9.
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