Smartphone prices are climbing, and according to the latest industry analysis, they aren’t coming back down anytime soon. A new IDC forecast paints a grim picture for the 2026 global smartphone market, projecting a record-setting decline in shipments alongside pricing pressure that appears to be here to stay.
IDC has revised its 2026 outlook downward significantly. Where analysts previously anticipated a drop of roughly 14%, the firm now expects a 16.7% year-over-year fall. That translates to about 200 million fewer smartphones shipped, with the second half of the year absorbing the hardest blow.
For most users, the number of devices shipped has little direct impact beyond one likely consequence: people holding onto their current phones for longer. The more meaningful shift is pricing, which IDC describes as set to remain elevated “permanently.”
Why Memory Costs Are Driving Prices Higher
The core problem is memory pricing, which is expected to keep rising through at least 2028. Even after that point, IDC projects average selling prices will decline by only about 1% to 2% per year. In practical terms, next year’s smartphones will likely cost more than this year’s releases, and budget devices will become increasingly difficult to find as brands concentrate on higher-end models with healthier margins.
The low-end market faces the steepest threat. Roughly 173 million smartphones priced below EUR 86 shipped last year, but that category is now in an existential crisis. Android makers focused on entry-level hardware, already working with razor-thin margins, are trimming budget models and shifting toward premium product mixes. In the second quarter of 2026, this segment fell nearly 60% year-over-year, with steeper declines expected in the back half of the year.
Premium devices are proving more resilient. Long-term, interest-free financing options are more common in developed markets like the United States and United Kingdom, which cushions buyers at the high end. The mass market, particularly in emerging regions, is not faring as well and is expected to decline more than 20% this year. That divide explains why unit sales keep falling while overall market value continues to rise.
What This Means for the Industry Ahead
IDC frames the coming period as a turning point. The next 18 months, the firm says, will separate vendors capable of operating in a structurally more expensive market from those who cannot. Apple, Samsung, and Huawei hold the scale and pricing power to benefit, while smaller Android brands rooted in entry tiers face what IDC calls the hardest stretch in the industry’s history, with some not expected to survive it.
When memory supply stabilizes in 2028, the market that emerges is projected to be smaller in units, larger in value, and far more concentrated at the top.
One category bucking the trend is foldables, forecast to grow 12.6% in 2026 to 22.9 million units and accelerate toward roughly 27 million units in 2027, driven in large part by Apple’s upcoming foldable expected to debut within weeks.
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