Kalshi, the prediction market platform, has handed former Republican congressman George Santos its first-ever lifetime ban and levied a EUR 61,287 fine, citing violations of its rules against insider trading and market manipulation.
According to the disciplinary notice released this week, Santos placed trades in markets tied to whether he would attend President Trump’s State of the Union address in February 2026. He then made a series of public statements about his attendance in what the notice describes as an attempt to move the price of certain contracts. Some of those statements were characterized as false or misleading.
What Triggered the Enforcement Action
The day before the address, Santos posted on X that he would be present in the gallery for the speech. During the event, he issued a follow-up saying he was actually at an airport watching on television. Kalshi’s enforcement team flagged the trades, froze his account, and referred the matter to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the federal agency responsible for overseeing prediction markets.
This summer, Santos settled with the CFTC for EUR 30,061 over the flagged trades. Just over EUR 15,030 of that amount represented the return of profit he had made, with an additional EUR 15,030 assessed as a fine. At the time, his lawyer said Santos settled to put the matter behind him and did so without admitting the Commission’s allegations, findings, or conclusions.
Through his legal representative, Santos declined to comment. On social media, however, he sarcastically thanked Kalshi for the lifetime ban and questioned how long the platform would remain in operation, referencing the company’s ongoing disputes with state authorities over how it is regulated.
A History With the Prediction Market Industry
Santos previously had a warmer relationship with the sector. He was once paid to promote Kalshi rival Polymarket, which cut ties with him after federal regulators began examining his conduct around February’s State of the Union.
The ban adds to a lengthy record of legal trouble. Santos was expelled from Congress following a 2023 ethics investigation and later pleaded guilty and served time in federal prison for embezzling from campaign donors, lying to Congress, and defrauding contributors. He was released in 2025 after President Trump commuted his sentence.
Kalshi determined that Santos successfully influenced the pricing of several markets. The company issued four additional enforcement notices the same day, but Santos was the only individual penalized who did not settle. A Kalshi spokesperson said he refused to communicate with the company and actively avoided its inquiries.
Over the past year, Kalshi has taken action against several politicians it found had broken its rules. In this latest round, the platform fined North Carolina congressional candidate Laurie Buckhout, California gubernatorial candidate Stephen Kloobeck, and Maine gubernatorial candidate Ben Midgley for attempting to trade on contracts related to their own races. All three received temporary suspensions.
